El Niño Could Become Strongest in 40 Years, UN Warns of ‘Danger Zone’ for Extreme Weather

The next El Niño could become the strongest observed in four decades, with the World Meteorological Organization warning that the world is entering what UN Secretary-General António Guterres called a “danger zone of extreme weather.”

WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the phenomenon could reach the highest level on its four-step scale and peak toward the end of the year. The probability that it will last until February 2027 is considered nearly 100%, while its climate effects could continue throughout 2027.

Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific stood 1.5 degrees Celsius above average from May to July. The gap widened to between 2.2 and 2.6 degrees from late July to mid-August. In some areas, subsurface water was more than 8 degrees warmer than average.

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danger zone of extreme weather

WMO forecasts above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas from September through November. Strong El Niño events often bring drought to the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, disrupt India’s monsoon season, and alter rainfall patterns in the tropics. Sri Lanka is already experiencing one of its most severe droughts in decades. Rainfall in some farming districts has fallen 85% to 100% below the long-term average, while hundreds of reservoirs hold only about 10% of their capacity.

Saulo warned that the event could “deliver a heavy blow” to communities and the global economy, urging agriculture, health, energy and water-resource sectors to prepare. NOAA estimates a 69% chance that this El Niño will become the strongest on record. Scientists also observed three Pacific storms at once: Marie strengthened off Baja California, while the Category 4 hurricanes Karina and Lowell moved west.

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deliver a heavy blow