El Niño Could Cut Rainfall in Johor, Melaka by Up to 40%

Malaysia is bracing for a potentially drier Northeast Monsoon season, with the southern states of Johor and Melaka expected to receive significantly less rainfall, according to the Malaysian Meteorological Department (MetMalaysia). The El Niño phenomenon is forecast to reduce rainfall by between 20% and 40% in these regions as the monsoon season, typically running from late October/early November to late March, approaches.

MetMalaysia Director-General Mohd Hisham Mohd Anip stated that while the east coast of Peninsular Malaysia might not see significant effects until year-end, the El Niño's influence is anticipated to intensify later in the season and peak early next year. This reduced rainfall could be accompanied by a notable rise in temperatures, with projections indicating that temperatures exceeding 35°C could occur across the country from February to May next year, potentially extending into June.

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Based on the information we have and rainfall projections six months ahead, we do not expect significant effects on the east coast (of Peninsular Malaysia) until the end of the year.

El Niño, a natural climate pattern characterized by warming sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, alters global weather patterns. MetMalaysia had previously forecast a "super El Niño" developing in November and lasting until January, which could bring hotter weather, less rain, and a risk of transboundary haze. Hisham noted that Malaysia's average temperatures have already increased by 0.19°C per decade since the 1980s due to global warming. If the current El Niño reaches a very strong level, it could push temperatures above the record high of 40.1°C recorded in April 1998.

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If this El Niño reaches the very strong level that is expected, the country's highest temperature could surpass the record of 40.1°C recorded on Apr 9, 1998, with a potential temperature surge occurring between March and May 2027.