El Niño Forecast: Strongest Impact Expected Between November 2026 and March 2027

Ecuador's National Committee for the Study of the El Niño Phenomenon (CN-Erfen) has issued an "Active El Niño Warning," as the phenomenon continues to intensify. Projections indicate El Niño will reach a strong to very strong intensity by late 2026, with its most significant impact anticipated between November 2026 and March 2027, coinciding with the country's rainy season.

The latest technical report, issued July 29, classifies El Niño's strength based on oceanic warming but cautions that this intensity alone does not predict the exact scale of potential rainfall, flooding, or river level increases. Current oceanic data reveals significant warming in the tropical Pacific, with sea surface temperature anomalies reaching 2.2°C in the Niño 3.4 region and 3.8°C in the Niño 1+2 region. Notably, the typical seasonal cooling has not occurred, underscoring the phenomenon's persistence.

Off the Ecuadorian coast, sea surface temperatures range from 25 to 28°C, exceeding historical averages. The warm surface layer is over 30 meters deep, the thermocline is deeper than usual, and the upwelling of cold, nutrient-rich waters has decreased. These conditions disrupt the natural ocean behavior along the country's coastline.

The warming seas have already led to reduced biological productivity, evidenced by low chlorophyll-a concentrations and shifts in phytoplankton composition. Despite deeper nutrient reserves, surface availability has diminished due to the elevated water temperatures. This environmental shift has tangible consequences for marine ecosystems and potentially for the fishing industry.

Ecuador has already faced substantial impacts from rainfall-related events this year. Between January 1 and July 29, 2026, the country recorded 2,775 adverse events, affecting 157,292 people. These incidents, including floods and landslides, have predominantly occurred in provinces like Guayas, Los Ríos, Esmeraldas, El Oro, Loja, Manabí, and Santa Elena. While July saw a significant decrease in adverse events, the overall impact this year highlights the country's vulnerability to extreme weather.