El Nino is expected ‘to break records’ — top expert

The current El Niño weather phenomenon is poised to break records for its overall strength, according to a leading expert, fueling concerns about intensified droughts, floods, and other extreme weather events worldwide.

Tim Stockdale, an El Niño expert at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), described the forecast models as pointing to an "extreme" event. He noted that this El Niño is unlike any he has observed in over three decades of tracking the phenomenon, stating, "I think it’s absolutely true to say we’ve never had a forecast of an El Nino that was so strong and so consistent across (forecast) models."

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I think it’s absolutely true to say we’ve never had a forecast of an El Nino that was so strong and so consistent across (forecast) models.

Stockdale indicated that it would be a significant surprise if the event did not set a new record. El Niño typically warms surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, altering global wind, pressure, and rainfall patterns. It occurs every two to seven years and usually lasts nine to 12 months. The phenomenon, exacerbated by human-induced climate change, has been linked to making 2023 the second-hottest year on record and 2024 the hottest.

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I would expect it to break records, but no guarantees.