El Niño likely to strengthen further, persist into 2027, WMO says

El Niño is expected to grow stronger into 2027, with the World Meteorological Organization warning that the weather phenomenon could increase the risk of extreme conditions around the world.

The United Nations weather agency forecasts a near 100% chance that El Niño will continue through February 2027. Exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures are fueling the phenomenon, which is expected to peak toward the end of this year.

“

El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up.

A very strong El Niño can alter rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide and contribute to extreme weather, including typhoons. The naturally occurring event results from the warming of surface waters in the eastern Pacific as trade winds weaken. It typically develops every two to seven years and can last up to 12 months, bringing heavy rain and drought to parts of Latin America.

The current El Niño has already affected tropical soft commodities and contributed to a severe food crisis in Central America's Dry Corridor. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the organization is strengthening preparedness and early-warning work to help disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres described the phenomenon in stark terms: "El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up."

“

WMO is committed to working closely with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian system to provide the climate intelligence and insights needed to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water resources.