El Niño poses less visible but devastating risk to Peruvian Amazon, study finds

While Peru often associates El Niño's impacts with coastal flooding, a new study reveals a significant, less visible threat to the Amazon: devastating wildfires. Research by Conservación Amazónica (ACCA) warns that a repeat of the historic 2024 wildfire season is possible if El Niño conditions align with other critical factors.

The study, titled 'El Niño and forest fires in the Peruvian Amazon: What can we expect for the 2026-2027 season?', explains that El Niño alone does not guarantee extreme fire seasons. The confluence of exceptionally high temperatures in the North Atlantic, severe drought, and human activities such as agricultural expansion, deforestation, and intentional burning for land clearing are necessary triggers. In 2024, these factors combined, leading to the most severe wildfire season on record for the Peruvian Amazon, affecting approximately 240,000 hectares of forest, agricultural land, and other ecosystems.

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If the climatic conditions that triggered the historic 2024 fire season coincide again, the country could once again face a scenario of large-scale forest fires.

International forecasts indicate a high probability of a strong El Niño event developing between 2026 and 2027. The research emphasizes that Peru has a crucial window to enhance its prevention and preparedness measures before these conditions fully materialize. "What scientific evidence shows is which conditions significantly increase that risk and why we must monitor them permanently. We still have time to prepare before those variables coincide again," stated Sidney Novoa, ACCA's director of conservation technologies.

However, the study also points to significant institutional shortcomings. Many areas impacted by the 2024 fires lack updated wildfire prevention plans. Firefighting resources are limited and concentrated in provincial capitals, and a substantial portion of the disaster risk management budget has not yet been executed. This indicates that the challenge lies not only in securing funding but also in ensuring timely and effective execution of resources to bolster prevention and response capabilities before the next critical season.

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What scientific evidence shows is which conditions significantly increase that risk and why we must monitor them permanently. We still have time to prepare before those variables coincide again.