El Niño's full impact on global temperatures yet to arrive, WMO warns

Despite ongoing severe heatwaves and droughts gripping Western Europe this summer, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warns that the most significant temperature increases associated with the El Niño phenomenon are still on the horizon. El Niño, which is now established in the Pacific, is predicted to drive global temperatures higher, with its peak influence expected from late 2026 through early 2027.

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With El Niño already established in the Pacific, we expect to observe a rebound in global temperatures. The highest ones tend to occur after it has reached its maximum, normally between November and January.

"With El Niño already established in the Pacific, we expect to observe a rebound in global temperatures. The highest ones tend to occur after it has reached its maximum, normally between November and January," explained John Kennedy, the WMO's chief of climate information. He clarified that the current extreme heat in Europe is primarily a result of long-term global warming caused by the greenhouse effect, compounded by persistent high-pressure weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere.

These high-pressure systems have affected large swathes of the Northern Hemisphere simultaneously, leading to record-breaking warmth. Europe experienced its hottest June-July period on record, and globally, July was the second warmest on record, with temperatures 1.47 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average. As of early August, several European countries, including France, Switzerland, and the UK, were facing their fourth heatwave of the summer, with temperatures exceeding 35-36 degrees Celsius.

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In July, high pressures (associated with elevated temperatures) simultaneously affected Western Europe, North America, and Central Asia, and in August the same areas have been affected as well as parts of East Asia.

The lack of precipitation accompanying these high temperatures has led to critically low water levels in major European rivers such as the Seine, Rhine, and Danube. The WMO spokesperson, Clare Nullis, noted that a single summer storm would not be enough to replenish the depleted river levels and soil moisture. Some regions may require as much as 250-350 millimeters of additional rainfall to return to normal. Meanwhile, other parts of the world are experiencing intense monsoon rains, with flood risks present in Southeast Asia and the Indian subcontinent.

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In some parts of Europe the deficit is large and has been accumulating for several months, so a summer storm will not be enough to recover river levels and soil moisture.