El Nino Strengthens, Testing Indonesia's Food Security

Indonesia's food security faces a significant challenge as the El Nino weather phenomenon intensifies, according to Dwi Andreas Santosa, a professor at IPB University's Faculty of Agriculture. Santosa urged the government to bolster mitigation efforts against El Nino's impact on national food production in the latter half of 2026.

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There is a potential for a decrease in production for several commodities.

He projects a potential decrease in rice production by 3-5 percent if the drought conditions associated with El Nino become severe. "There is a potential for a decrease in production for several commodities," Santosa stated during an online discussion, highlighting rice and corn as key concerns due to their reliance on water availability. This contrasts with 2025, a year described as favorable for agriculture due to La Nina, which allowed for extended planting seasons.

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In my opinion, there will be a production decrease of approximately 3-5 percent for rice. Besides that, corn is also likely to decrease because corn also needs water.

The Indonesian Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) corroborates these concerns. Monitoring in late July indicated that sea surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region signaled a strong El Nino, which early August updates classified as "very strong." The BMKG forecasts El Nino's persistence into the first quarter of 2027, with potential exacerbation from a positive Indian Ocean Dipole. This combination is expected to bring drier and longer dry seasons to most of Indonesia, with 48.77 percent of the land area potentially facing extended drought periods.

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We are facing a less favorable situation, namely the El Nino phenomenon, whereas in 2025 we were indeed blessed with a favorable climate phenomenon for agriculture that we call La Nina, so we could plant all year round.