El Niño to Slash Rainfall Across Indonesia Starting June

Indonesia is bracing for a significant reduction in rainfall as the El Niño phenomenon takes hold, with dry conditions expected to persist from June through September. The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has already observed extremely minimal rainfall across much of the archipelago, a stark contrast to the usual afternoon showers in Jakarta.

Erma Yulihastin, a researcher at the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), confirmed that the dry spell is not limited to Jakarta but is widespread. "The same goes for August until September: there will be a significant reduction in rainfall," she stated. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) officially declared the onset of El Niño in June 2026, noting a rise in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.

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The same goes for August until September: there will be a significant reduction in rainfall.

BRIN's climate modeling indicates that the initial impacts of El Niño are already apparent, particularly in the Java region and the southeastern parts of Indonesia, including Bali, Lombok, West Nusa Tenggara, and East Nusa Tenggara. These parched conditions are projected to expand southward in the latter half of June, with rainfall potentially dropping below 0.5 millimeters in many areas.

While a potential increase in rainfall is anticipated along Sumatra's western coast in late June due to atmospheric vortices in the Indian Ocean, Java is expected to remain largely dry. The dominant dry weather pattern is predicted to continue across southern Indonesia throughout July, underscoring the widespread impact of El Niño on the nation's climate.

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The intensity is observed to reach around +0.69 degrees Celsius in the central tropics near the equator of the Pacific Ocean.