Election interference by Iran, Russia, or China may help PM Netanyahu, not hurt him - opinion

The head of Israel's Shin Bet, David Zini, has issued a warning about potential foreign interference in the upcoming election, naming Russia, China, and Iran as likely actors. Zini, considered a political appointee of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has prompted speculation about the timing and intent of his warning, especially as current polls indicate the governing coalition faces potential defeat.

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With nearly every poll showing the governing coalition headed toward defeat, it is difficult to avoid the suspicion that it is laying the groundwork to challenge the legitimacy of the outcome.

Analysts suggest that with the governing coalition heading toward a loss, the warning could be a precursor to challenging the election's legitimacy. This strategy might mirror former US President Donald Trump's post-2020 approach, aiming to sow doubt about the electoral process through widespread claims of irregularities. In Israel's parliamentary system, the goal could be to generate enough political instability to prevent an opposition bloc, particularly one reliant on Arab parties, from forming a government, thereby keeping Netanyahu relevant.

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In Israel’s parliamentary system, with all the complexities of coalition-building, the goal would not necessarily be to overturn the vote itself but to create enough political turmoil to deter the opposition bloc from forming a government that depends on an Arab party.

While the threat of foreign interference is real, with liberal democracies globally targeted by sophisticated influence operations via social media, AI, and deepfakes, the article posits a more surprising angle. The typical pattern of such operations by autocratic states is to deepen divisions, intensify polarization, and weaken democratic societies. In Israel's specific context, this logic, according to the author, points toward interference benefiting Netanyahu's bloc rather than undermining it, as enemies might conventionally be expected to target the incumbent government.

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Liberal democracies around the world have become prime targets for sophisticated electoral influence operations conducted through social media, artificial intelligence, coordinated networks of fake accounts, deep-fakes, and the systematic amplification of existing political divisions.