Elections 2026: Is Zambia’s democratic success story beginning to fray?

Zambia, recognized as one of Africa's few nations with peaceful multi-party power transfers, faces a critical test of its democratic credentials in the upcoming general elections on August 13. While the 2025 Economist Intelligence Unit Democracy Index ranks Zambia among Africa's top 10 democracies, it remains a 'hybrid regime' due to persistent governance challenges. The credibility of the 2026 polls hinges not just on the presence of democratic institutions but on their performance amid a charged political climate.

The Electoral Commission of Zambia (ECZ) has registered a record 26 presidential candidates, with 14 approved, including incumbent President Hakainde Hichilema seeking a second term. This high number signifies both an open electoral landscape and significant opposition fragmentation. Internal leadership disputes and alleged executive interference in the Registrar of Societies have led to numerous short-lived alliances and parties, potentially hindering any opposition candidate's ability to secure the crucial 50%+1 vote threshold, even with late-stage coalitions.

Approximately 8.7 million of Zambia's over 21 million citizens have registered to vote, indicating an anticipated high turnout. An Afrobarometer survey highlights that 86% of Zambians view elections as the optimal method for selecting leaders, underscoring public trust in electoral processes. However, the electoral competition unfolds against a backdrop of intense political divisions, with public discourse often dominated by disputes like the ongoing burial controversy surrounding former president Edgar Lungu.

Economic grievances are likely to be the primary driver of voter behavior. Despite reduced inflation and improved GDP growth, Zambians are concerned about the rising cost of living, unemployment, and unreliable electricity supply, with about 72% experiencing either no or irregular access to electricity in 2024. These economic pressures are expected to overshadow elite political disputes.

Furthermore, a raft of major constitutional and legislative reforms introduced just 12 months before the polls has proven contentious. The Constitutional Amendment Act No 13 of 2025, initially criticized for its rushed process and lack of consultation, was declared unconstitutional by the Constitutional Court. After revisions, it was enacted in December 2025, notably expanding Parliament and introducing proportional representation seats for women, youth, and persons with disabilities. Currently, women hold only 14.4% of parliamentary seats.

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86% of Zambians believe elections are the best way to choose political leaders