Emerging Technologies Threaten Security. Middle Powers Must Lead

Artificial intelligence is advancing so quickly that it is changing not only weapons, but the character of war itself, writes Seoul National University political science professor Kim Sang-bae.

Kim describes the United States-Israel-Iran war earlier this year as an example of a new security environment. AI-enabled systems reportedly identified and prioritized thousands of targets within a short period, generating and carrying out operational plans at a speed and scale beyond human cognitive ability. An Iranian elementary school was mistakenly hit after an AI system misidentified a target, he writes, highlighting the ethical and regulatory dangers of military AI.

The risks extend to AI-enabled drones linked with space assets, the growing militarization and weaponization of low-Earth-orbit satellites, and agentic AI systems that can autonomously find vulnerabilities and launch cyberattacks. The possible integration of AI with nuclear weapons also raises concerns about increased cyber risks and threats to the stability of the existing order.

Yet international efforts to establish rules and norms are moving more slowly than the threats are emerging. Intensifying technological rivalry between the United States and China has pushed those efforts aside, creating both a structural gap in international leadership and a normative gap in responses to new security risks. Kim warns of a G0 situation in which neither major power fully leads efforts to build order and norms. He also says the second Donald Trump administration’s shift toward technological innovation and deregulation could weaken existing attempts to develop international rules.

Kim argues that South Korea cannot wait for major powers to act. As both a global middle power and an AI power, South Korea can bring more varied and objective perspectives to the debate. It should build shared international understanding, connect the views of governments, international organizations, experts and the private sector, and propose agendas before the security order around emerging technologies is set by others.

The World New Security Forum, scheduled in Seoul on Sept. 9, is presented as one venue for that effort. South Korea has led the middle-power diplomatic forum since 2021, and Kim says this year’s gathering should address the present and future realities of emerging security.