Erdogan distances himself from Putin as Turkey rebalances ties

The decade-long partnership between Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Russian President Vladimir Putin, initiated against the backdrop of the Syrian war, is currently facing significant challenges. Gonul Tol, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, writes for The New York Times that a new reality is emerging where Ankara is actively assisting Ukraine, diminishing Moscow's once-significant regional influence.

During the Syrian conflict, Turkey and Russia supported opposing sides: Turkey backed the rebels seeking to overthrow Bashar al-Assad, while Russia supported the Syrian dictator. Despite this, they managed a coexistence model that allowed both to pursue their interests. For instance, Russia's control over Syrian airspace enabled Turkey to conduct military operations in northern Syria in 2016 without objection.

Initially, Erdogan was the junior partner in the relationship with Moscow. However, following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the dynamic shifted. Moscow's increasing international isolation made it more dependent on Turkey, which did not join Western sanctions. Ankara became a vital center for Russian trade, investment, and energy flows, thereby gaining leverage over the Kremlin.

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This is a critical moment for Turkey to reassess its role as a key NATO ally, rebalance its relationship with Russia, and help Ukraine forge new connections in the Middle East.

Tol identifies the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in late 2024 as a pivotal event altering Turkish-Russian relations. Russia, preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, could not protect its ally and was forced to engage with the new Syrian government. Meanwhile, Turkey, having long supported the opposition, significantly strengthened its position.

"This is a critical moment for Turkey to reassess its role as a key NATO ally, rebalance its relationship with Russia, and help Ukraine forge new connections in the Middle East," Tol writes. The article notes Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visit to Syria in April, where he met with the interim leader and the Turkish foreign minister. Beyond Syria, Kyiv is also developing ties with Gulf nations, sharing expertise on combating Iranian Shahed drones with Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. "It is clear that Ankara is no longer trying to balance relations between Moscow and NATO, but is beginning to resist Putin," Tol concludes, adding that Ukraine has benefited the most from these changes.

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It is clear that Ankara is no longer trying to balance relations between Moscow and NATO, but is beginning to resist Putin.