Erdogan's rivalry with Israel finds a new front in Africa

The strengthening Turkey-South Africa relationship extends beyond mere trade diversification or multipolar hedging; it is anchored by a coordinated diplomatic strategy. Ankara's decision to join Pretoria's genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice in 2026 marked a significant deepening of this alliance.

Turkish submissions are explicitly designed to bolster South Africa's legal framework, and both nations are central to The Hague Group's campaign to hold Israel accountable through international law. This is not a coincidental alignment of interests but a deliberate diplomatic architecture. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's motivations appear to transcend simple virtue signaling, especially when viewed within Turkey's broader, two-decade-long African buildup.

Turkey's engagement in Africa has been systematic, starting with diplomacy, expanding to capacity-building through military and police training academies, health infrastructure, and university scholarships that attract thousands of African students. This groundwork has paved the way for significant defense exports. In 2024 alone, Baykar's drone exports reached approximately $1.8 billion, equipping 18 African militaries, many operating in civil war zones. Furthermore, Turkey's SADAT private military contractor, founded by an Erdogan-linked former general, operates in nine African countries, recruiting Syrian mercenaries for deployments.

Concerns are mounting over the implications of these activities. Reporting highlights a correlation between Turkish defense and security engagements and political instability in Africa. Specifically, nine of the last ten successful coups in Africa occurred in Sahel states, and five of the seven affected countries had previously acquired Turkish drones, with three hosting SADAT personnel. Separate reporting on Sudan indicates a spillover of Turkish weapons from the Sudanese Armed Forces into South Sudan, raising fears of further proliferation to Sahelian jihadist groups.

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This is not an incidental overlap between two states that happen to disagree with Jerusalem; instead, it is a coordinated diplomatic architecture, and it is worth asking what Turkish strongman and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan gets out of it beyond virtue signaling.