Ethiopia's PM won a Nobel Peace Prize, stoked a civil war - and is set for re-election

When Abiy Ahmed assumed Ethiopia's prime ministership in 2018, he promised a fresh start for Africa's oldest independent nation, long constrained by state control. His predecessor had overseen economic growth but maintained a pattern of violent suppression of dissent, leading to protests and his eventual resignation. Abiy, then just 41, quickly garnered international acclaim by brokering a truce with Eritrea, ending a two-decade conflict. This achievement, coupled with early reforms like releasing political prisoners and easing press restrictions, earned him the Nobel Peace Prize, positioning him as a peacemaker and reformer.

However, the initial optimism surrounding Abiy's leadership has significantly waned. Ethiopia, the second most populous country in Africa, now grapples with deep internal divisions, widespread ethnic conflicts, curtailed freedoms of speech, and intensified crackdowns on opposition. Critics now view the leader, once hailed as a unifier, as a primary instigator of the nation's current schisms as the country prepares for a national election.

The upcoming June 1 election highlights a stark dichotomy within Ethiopia. The capital, Addis Ababa, presents an image of progress with new infrastructure and economic reforms, including a national stock market. This urban facade, however, starkly contrasts with the reality in regions like Tigray, Amhara, and Oromia, which are ravaged by active warfare, massacres, and displacement. These conflicts are widely linked to Abiy's departure from Ethiopia's established system of ethnic federalism, which previously granted regional states autonomy over local laws and security forces.

For nearly three decades, Ethiopia was governed by the EPRDF, a coalition of four major ethnic-based parties. Abiy was initially elevated by this coalition to ease internal tensions. Yet, in November 2019, shortly after receiving the Nobel Prize, he dissolved the EPRDF and formed the Prosperity Party, a single national entity. To centralize power further, he mandated regional states to disband their local armies and integrate them into the national force, a move that has fueled regional grievances and instability.