EU Enlargement's 'Super Tuesday': How Juncker's 2014 brake weakened the bloc, and Ukraine's invasion changed everything
Translated from German, summarized and contextualized by DistantNews.
At a glance
Analysis
Sources not specified
Context piece
- Jean-Claude Juncker's 2014 statement that no new members would join the EU in the next five years significantly weakened the Union geopolitically.
- This stance discouraged Western Balkan states from pursuing necessary reforms, as the door to EU membership appeared closed.
- The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 fundamentally altered the EU's perspective, prompting a renewed focus on enlargement as a geopolitical tool.
Twelve years ago, on July 15, 2014, then-European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker declared that no new members would join the European Union within the next five years. While factually accurate at the time, as no candidate country was prepared for accession by 2019, Juncker's "enlargement brake" had profound geopolitical consequences, significantly weakening the EU.
In the next five years, no new members will join us in the European Union.
The decision discouraged the six Western Balkan states, Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Kosovo, and Serbia, from undertaking crucial state reforms. With the EU door seemingly shut for at least five years, their motivation to meet accession criteria diminished. Juncker acknowledged the need for a "credible and honest European perspective" for these nations but offered no concrete path forward during his tenure.
The geopolitical landscape shifted dramatically on February 24, 2022, with Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. This act of aggression not only targeted Ukraine but also challenged the EU's political and civilizational influence in Eastern Europe and the Balkans. The heightened global tensions made the Western Balkan states increasingly wary of becoming pawns to Moscow, Ankara, Beijing, or Gulf theocracies.
The negotiations will continue, and other European countries and peoples need a credible and honest European perspective. This particularly concerns the Western Balkans.
In response to this new reality, the European Commission, under President Ursula von der Leyen, has re-emphasized enlargement as a key geopolitical instrument. The prospect of joining the EU, described as the "richest and safest club of nations," has reignited aspirations in Ukraine, Moldova, and Georgia, demonstrating the enduring power of the Union's gravitational pull.
Repairing a burning airplane during flight is not a simple matter. Sometimes you burn your fingers.
DistantNews Editorial
Originally published by Die Presse in German. Translated, summarized, and contextualized by our editorial team with added local perspective. Read our editorial standards.
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