Europe at a Turning Point? Sovereignist Forces Expected to Strengthen

Europe may be approaching a pivotal moment as sovereignist and patriotic forces are poised for significant gains in the coming years, potentially altering the continent's political balance. Political scientist Zoltán Kiszelly suggests that several key EU member states could see a strengthening of these movements, fundamentally reshaping European politics.

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the next few years could see sovereignist forces strengthen in several key EU countries, fundamentally reshaping European political power dynamics.

Kiszelly noted that while Hungary's voters did not choose the alternative path Orbán Viktor often advocated for, the political direction represented by the European People's Party is proceeding. However, he sees different dynamics unfolding in France, where Marine Le Pen's National Rally party is considered a strong contender in next spring's presidential and subsequent parliamentary elections. Kiszelly believes France is on the cusp of what Orbán has long discussed: a patriotic political force potentially coming to power in a major member state.

Such a victory in France, Kiszelly argues, would significantly boost the influence of sovereignist forces across the European Union. He pointed to efforts to prevent this, citing the ongoing legal proceedings against Marine Le Pen and French banks' reluctance to fund her campaign, similar to previous elections. Kiszelly also anticipates favorable outcomes for patriotic forces in other European countries, mentioning specific German states and predicting Giorgia Meloni's likely re-election as Italian Prime Minister next year. The path to government for the Law and Justice (PiS) party in Poland after the next parliamentary elections is also a possibility.

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The French are precisely on the threshold of what Orbán Viktor has always spoken about: patriotic politics could come to power in a large member state.

Kiszelly believes the growing support for patriotic parties and upcoming election results could create a blocking minority within the EU, opposing the current political trajectory. He suggests that this would require several favorable political turns. If Austria were to join Italy, France, Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic, and if patriotic forces also gained ground in Romania and Spain, the sovereignist bloc's weight in EU decision-making could substantially increase.

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The growing support for patriotic parties and the outcomes of the upcoming elections could lead to a blocking minority within the European Union against the current political direction.