Europe's Jet Fuel Stocks Dangerously Low Amid Iran Tensions

Europe's jet fuel stocks are critically low, holding less than a month's worth of demand, leaving the continent highly vulnerable to supply disruptions. Decades of refinery closures have made Europe more dependent on Middle Eastern shipments, which are threatened by escalating tensions and potential conflict.

The Strait of Hormuz, a vital conduit for oil and gas, has seen fragile stability since February airstrikes on Iran. However, recent exchanges between the US and Iran have put this truce under strain. Data from Energy Aspects predicts a significant supply deficit of nearly 600,000 barrels per day for Europe in the third quarter, contrasting with surpluses in the US and Asia-Pacific.

Inventories at the start of June stood at 38 million barrels, a stark contrast to the 99 million in the United States. This precarious situation has prompted the European Commission to acknowledge the potential for worsening conditions. EU Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen indicated that Brussels might coordinate the release of national reserves if necessary to mitigate shortages towards the end of the summer holiday season.

Despite the challenges, Europe has managed to secure supplies by turning to new sources. Imports in June reached their highest point since October 2025, with significant contributions from the US and Nigeria. Canada, India, and South Korea have also provided crucial cargoes, diversifying Europe's supply chain away from its traditional reliance on the Middle East.

“

We still do expect some tightness through August at this rate.