Europe's Jet Fuel Stocks Dangerously Low Amid Iran Tensions

Europe's jet fuel supplies are critically thin, holding less than a month's worth of demand cover as renewed tensions in the Middle East threaten further disruption. The continent is particularly exposed due to decades of refinery closures, increasing its reliance on shipments from the region via the Strait of Hormuz.

While Europe has sought to mitigate the risk by importing jet fuel from the U.S. and Asia, boosting refinery output, and drawing on existing stocks, the situation remains precarious. Data from Energy Aspects anticipates a significant supply deficit of nearly 600,000 barrels per day in Europe for the third quarter. Inventories stood at 38 million barrels at the start of June, a stark contrast to the 99 million barrels in the United States.

This tight supply situation has led Europe to seek alternative sources, including Canada and Nigeria's Dangote refinery, alongside India and Oman. In June, Europe's jet fuel imports reached their highest level since October 2025, with the U.S. and Nigeria being the largest exporters. However, the ongoing instability in the Middle East, a traditional supplier for nearly half of Europe's jet fuel imports before February, casts a long shadow over future supply security.

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We still do expect some tightness through August at this rate.