Evergreen International Logistics: Air Cargo Booms, Sea Freight Weakens in Q3 Amid Supply Chain Shifts

Evergreen International Logistics anticipates a robust third quarter for air cargo, primarily fueled by the strong demand for AI semiconductor shipments. The company's chairman, Chien Wen-chun, stated that air freight rates are expected to continue rising, with further increases predicted for August.

In contrast, the sea freight market is projected to weaken. This downturn is attributed to a decline in the pre-tariff rush orders that occurred before the expiration of U.S. tariffs on July 24. Consequently, Evergreen expects third-quarter cargo volumes to decrease compared to the second quarter's peak and to be weaker than the same period last year.

Chien Wen-chun highlighted that the logistics sector is navigating more than just economic cycles. Global supply chains are undergoing a significant structural transformation, presenting new challenges such as fluctuating freight rates, evolving trade policies, geopolitical tensions, supply chain restructuring, and the impact of AI investments.

The company identifies five key structural forces reshaping global supply chains. Trade policy has become a major variable, with the U.S. implementing precise management measures like the Importer of Record (IOR) system and Section 301 tariffs. Geopolitics is another constant factor, with events in the Middle East and energy price volatility underscoring supply chain uncertainty. Evergreen emphasizes that supply chain management is shifting from a focus on lowest cost to resilience and risk management.

Furthermore, Evergreen notes a redistribution of global cargo flows, with China's exports increasingly targeting ASEAN, India, and other emerging markets. High-value cargo from Taiwan and Southeast Asia to the U.S. continues to grow. The company views this not as a simple "decoupling" from China, but rather a move towards more diversified and regionalized supply chain layouts. AI is also identified as a critical growth driver, boosting demand for high-value logistics related to AI servers, semiconductors, and data centers, positioning Taiwan as a key player in the global AI supply chain. Evergreen leverages its expertise in trade compliance, having assisted clients in securing over $32 million in IEEPA tariff refunds, demonstrating a shift towards higher-value logistics services.