Expectations of continued fuel price volatility in Morocco due to global tensions

The global energy market is currently a volatile landscape, heavily influenced by escalating tensions in the Middle East, particularly the ongoing standoff between the United States and Iran. As reported by Hespress, the recent uptick in oil prices, with Brent crude nearing $100 a barrel, is a direct consequence of this geopolitical uncertainty. The potential for conflict, including the disruption of vital shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz, casts a long shadow over supply stability.

Experts like university professor Abdel Samad Melloui highlight the precariousness of the current situation. His analysis, shared with Hespress, outlines various price scenarios. In the short term, continued ambiguity could keep prices between $90 and $110. However, any sudden military escalation, especially concerning the Strait of Hormuz, could send prices soaring past $120, with extreme pessimistic forecasts reaching $150. This volatility underscores the delicate balance of global energy security.

Looking beyond the immediate future, Melloui suggests that the outcome of negotiations between Washington and Tehran will be crucial for medium-term price stabilization. Internal divisions within Iran, between military and political factions, add another layer of complexity. While international bodies like the IEA and World Bank predict a long-term price drop to $60-$70 by mid-2026 due to increased non-OPEC production and slowing global demand, the immediate impact on countries like Morocco remains significant. The article notes that Morocco can expect further fuel price increases, adding to the economic strain on its citizens.