Expert Doubts Cloud Seeding Effectiveness for Increasing Rainfall in Honduras

Francisco Argeñal, director of the Center for Atmospheric, Oceanographic, and Seismic Studies (CENAOS) in Honduras, has cautioned that cloud seeding, or 'cloud bombing' with silver iodide, does not ensure precise or tangible results for increasing rainfall. He highlighted that the technique carries a significant financial cost and faces difficulties in attributing specific rainfall amounts to artificial intervention rather than natural weather patterns.

Argeñal recalled that Honduras previously experimented with cloud seeding in 1995, following an energy crisis. However, that initiative did not yield results that could be definitively proven to have had a significant impact. While silver iodide possesses hygroscopic properties that can aid in moisture collection under certain atmospheric conditions, its effectiveness is heavily dependent on the availability and characteristics of clouds.

"During the dry spell, we expect few clouds," Argeñal explained, noting that currently, only isolated clouds with limited development might appear. He pointed to potential formations in the Lepaterique sector but stated their quantity would likely be insufficient to justify a large-scale seeding operation. Even if a few isolated clouds were seeded, he questioned whether the resulting rainfall would be substantial enough to provide a significant benefit.

Therefore, Argeñal considers it essential to evaluate the cost-benefit ratio before embarking on such projects. He raised questions about the potential increase in precipitation, the exact volume of additional rainfall a specific basin might receive, and whether such an increase would be adequate to address the country's water deficit.

These uncertainties, Argeñal suggested, partly explain why the cloud seeding technique has not been widely adopted, even by nations with greater financial capacity. He emphasized that before allocating public funds to cloud seeding, a clear assessment must be made of the technique's potential contribution relative to its high cost and the concrete outcomes it could deliver for the country's major river basins.

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During the canícula we expect few clouds.