Expert: Little chance of Russia attacking Ukraine via Belarus again

Ukraine's concerns about a potential Russian attack from Belarus are justified, given recent military exercises in the neighboring country, according to Eastern Europe expert Peter Vermeersch. However, he assesses the likelihood of such an offensive as small, especially after a failed attempt in early 2022.

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Ukraine is right to be concerned, because the developments are serious.

Russia's initial plan to capture Kyiv swiftly from the northern flank via Belarus did not succeed. The border with Belarus is the closest to Kyiv and is heavily guarded. Vermeersch suggests that Russia might consider another offensive to break a current stalemate, but the chances of success appear even smaller.

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The plan of Putin was to take Kyiv immediately from that northern flank. That did not succeed.

Vermeersch believes Ukraine's publicizing of developments in Belarus is a strategic move to increase the pressure on Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko. Lukashenko has consistently stated he would not initiate his own military actions, but the ongoing exercises complicate his position. Ukraine aims to deter any attacks originating from Belarus, making public awareness a tactical advantage.

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The chance of it succeeding seems even smaller.

Lukashenko's reliance on Russia for his political survival places him in a difficult situation. He is under pressure from Putin, potentially forcing him to comply with Russian demands despite his public assurances to his own population.

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To make the entry costs for Lukashenko even higher.