Expert: Ukraine targets Russia's most vulnerable spot – its oil industry

Ukraine has found a way to pressure the Kremlin and compel a reassessment of the war by targeting Russia's vital oil industry, according to experts. Strikes on Russian oil facilities are increasingly harming the nation's economy, diminishing its military capacity, and intensifying political pressure on the Kremlin.

Analysts argue that these attacks should continue until "Moscow understands that prolonging the war may cost more than ending it." This strategy became apparent early in the full-scale invasion, but Ukraine lacked sufficient long-range weapons, and partners feared escalation. Now, Ukraine is striking targets over 2,500 kilometers away, such as Russia's largest oil refinery in Omsk, and other significant energy facilities deep in Siberia. This means Russia no longer has a secure rear, as distance no longer offers protection.

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Moscow understands that prolonging the war may cost more than ending it.

The cumulative impact of these long-range strikes is already evident. Ukraine's General Staff reports that Russia has lost over 40% of its gasoline production capacity. Consequently, Russia has banned gasoline and diesel exports, relaxed fuel quality standards, postponed repairs at remaining refineries, and is attempting to cover shortages through imports. "This is a serious breakthrough, considering that Russia is one of the world's largest oil producers and exporters," an expert explained the significance of targeting the oil sector.

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This is a serious breakthrough, considering that Russia is one of the world's largest oil producers and exporters.

These strikes are also altering Russia's export flows. Damaged refineries are forcing Moscow to supply more crude oil to global markets and reduce oil product exports, which yield less revenue. The United States' stance has shifted; while Washington previously feared escalation and rising global oil prices in 2024, President Donald Trump now calls these strikes "escalation that can contribute to ending the war." This reframing is crucial, suggesting Ukraine's long-range strikes should be viewed not primarily as an escalation problem, but as a tool to shorten the war. The Kremlin is unlikely to cease hostilities merely by polite request; it will only stop when the cost of continuing the war exceeds the cost of ending it.

Experts urge partners to focus on three key areas: strengthening Ukraine's air defense, aiding the production of its own long-range strike capabilities, and increasing pressure on Russia's oil revenues. While Ukraine physically dismantles Russia's oil refining system, sanctions should amplify this pressure. This presents a rare opportunity to significantly disrupt Russia's oil system. The strike on the Omsk refinery highlighted that facilities Russia considered safe due to their distance from the front lines are now vulnerable. Ukraine can threaten all Siberian refineries, military bases, and Russia's largest gas storage facility. Russia cannot quickly resolve this issue.

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escalation that can contribute to ending the war.