Experts Say Berlin’s Punitive Measures Are Unlikely to Deter Putin

Germany’s latest measures against Russia may do little to change Vladimir Putin’s calculations, but they could still open another round of tit-for-tat restrictions between Berlin and Moscow.

Russian political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin described the practical effect of the measures as largely symbolic. Berlin publicly blamed Moscow for an attempted drone attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport on Aug. 4, however, signaling a greater willingness to respond to what it regards as hostile Russian activity on German territory.

“

It’s only a source of joy for Putin. After all, he is restoring this Iron Curtain between Russia and all the other countries. And now he’s getting help from the other side as well.

“It’s only a source of joy for Putin,” Oreshkin told DW. “After all, he is restoring this Iron Curtain between Russia and all the other countries. And now he’s getting help from the other side as well.” He said Putin could be stopped only by escalation and tough restrictions.

Berlin has decided to close the Russian consulate in Bonn, terminate the contract for the Russian House cultural center in Berlin and tighten entry controls for Russian citizens. Boris Bondarev, a former diplomat who resigned in 2022 over Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, said the steps could make Russian operations more difficult but would not fundamentally alter Moscow’s strategy.

“I’m not sure this will be perceived in Russia as something that will make them think twice,” Bondarev said. He argued that only more coordinated action at the European Union level would deter provocations. Otherwise, he said, Russia might simply reorganize its operations and seek more professional operatives.

“

Putin is someone who cannot be stopped by anything other than escalation and tough restrictions.

The experts agreed that the measures could still have consequences by provoking reciprocal restrictions. Putin called Germany’s response “another mistake, a serious one,” and the Kremlin told the German Press Agency that Russia would respond in kind.

German security policy expert Wolfgang Richter said the risk of escalation had increased compared with the early years of the Russia-Ukraine war. He expected the next confrontation to remain focused mainly on diplomatic and cultural institutions, including a possible Russian closure of the Goethe-Institut or limits on Germany’s diplomatic staff in Moscow. Bondarev said the Kremlin could respond unpredictably, but predicted high-profile retaliatory measures were most likely.

“

I’m not sure this will be perceived in Russia as something that will make them think twice.