Fact Check: Prabowo Claims 13-Year High Economic Growth, But Welfare Concerns Linger

President Prabowo Subianto declared that Indonesia's 2026 economic performance would mark its highest growth in 13 years, reporting a 5.61 percent expansion in the first quarter and a 5.45 percent cumulative growth for the first half. He made this assertion during his address at the People's Consultative Assembly's Annual Session on August 14, 2026.

However, a fact-check by Tempo revealed that while the reported GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2026 does exceed figures recorded since 2013, this surge does not automatically translate to improved public welfare. The growth was significantly bolstered by government consumption expenditure, which rose 18.62 percent, and the accommodation and food services sector, which grew 11.83 percent.

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This economic growth is the highest in the last 13 years.

Economists express caution about the headline figures. Teuku Riefky, a macroeconomic researcher at the Institute for Economic and Social Research, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Indonesia, estimates that without government spending, Indonesia's real economic growth would hover around 4.52 percent. This is considerably lower than the past decade's average of 5 percent. Pasundan University economist Acuviarta Kartabi further stressed that GDP growth does not mirror the on-the-ground economic reality. He pointed to persistent income inequality and a significant wave of layoffs, with 43,000 cases reported as of June 2026, according to the Ministry of Manpower. Data from INDEF indicates a decline of 9.48 million people, or 16.5 percent, in the middle-class population over the last five years, suggesting that the economic gains are not broadly shared.

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This figure is actually far below the average over the past decade, which reached 5 percent.