Falling Nile Levels Expose Gaps in Sudan’s Water Management

Sudan is grappling with a severe water crisis as unusually low Nile levels disrupt critical services and jeopardize the agricultural season. The receding waters have triggered urgent discussions about the nation's capacity to manage its vital water resources.

While the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has been widely blamed for the diminished flows, experts and officials point to a more intricate web of factors. These include the management of Sudan's own reservoirs, inefficient water usage, and a significant lack of coordination and data exchange among Nile Basin countries. The ongoing conflict has further complicated matters by weakening state institutions and scattering the technical personnel crucial for irrigation and water management.

Saif al-Din Hamad, a former head of the technical committee at the Water Resources Ministry, argued that releases from the GERD in early 2026 exceeded Sudan's needs. He suggested Sudan missed an opportunity to store sufficient water in its Roseires Reservoir before Ethiopia began its own storage in July, a move that was anticipated under a 2022 technical agreement. "The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam stores about 25 billion cubic meters of water during the rainy season... and then releases it gradually during the low-flow period," Hamad explained, emphasizing that Sudan should have proactively managed its reserves.

Mubarak al-Fadil, head of the Umma Party, echoed concerns about internal management, attributing the crisis primarily to ineffective irrigation sector governance following a ministry merger and the displacement of technical staff due to the war. He stated that the regional focus on the GERD overlooks the critical impact of these domestic issues on reservoir operations and overall water resource management.

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The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam stores about 25 billion cubic meters of water during the rainy season, from July to October, and then releases it gradually during the low-flow period between January and June, while maintaining a strategic reserve to cope with prolonged droughts.