Feasibility of Bolivia's 2026 Macroeconomic Goals Questioned

El Deber analyzes the feasibility of Bolivia's proposed macroeconomic targets for 2026. While the government's efforts to stabilize the economy by correcting past excesses are noted, the projected figures for growth, inflation, and deficit present a mixed picture. The inflation target appears achievable, but the economic growth projection seems overly optimistic, especially considering the current downturn and forecasts from international bodies like the World Bank and IMF. The core difficulty lies in the ambitious simultaneous pursuit of fiscal consolidation, inflation control, and economic reactivation within a context of significant external pressures, including a shortage of foreign currency and substantial subsidy burdens. These factors strain fiscal and external accounts, making the stated goals more aspirational than sustainable. The reformulated PGE (General State Budget) is a necessary step towards fiscal order but falls short of being a comprehensive plan for economic revival. Without significant private investment, external financing, and structural reforms, the budget risks deepening the recession rather than stimulating growth. Bolivia faces deep-seated structural issues, including declining gas exports and low investment, which require more profound changes than the current budget addresses. In essence, while the government is tidying up, a robust plan for economic expansion is still lacking.