FIFA World Cup matches monitored for manipulation; 12 key cases analyzed

A monitoring group under the Council of Europe, focused on sports and betting, closely observed all 104 matches of the men's FIFA World Cup, subjecting 15 games to enhanced scrutiny. The group reported that seven cases during the tournament raised suspicions, and an additional 12 significant incidents were analyzed for potential match manipulation.

While the report's findings have not been publicly released, sources suggest that heightened attention was given to incidents such as Themba Zwane's red card for South Africa against Mexico and a disallowed goal for Spain's Ferran Torres against Saudi Arabia after a lengthy VAR review. Notably, a significant amount of money, €4.2 million, was reportedly bet on the Polymarket prediction market that Spain would not defeat Cape Verde in their group stage match, which ended in a goalless draw.

Christian Kalb, who specializes in the betting market and has collaborated with the monitoring group, cautioned that these observations do not necessarily indicate manipulation. He suggested that smaller betting companies might use prediction markets like Polymarket to hedge their own potential losses. The group also reportedly focused on events surrounding Folarin Balogun's red card for the United States, noting that similar betting markets were not opened for other red cards issued during the tournament.

Despite these analyses, FIFA's own investigation and monitoring unit announced that it found no indications of suspicious betting or match-fixing throughout the entire World Cup. The group's scrutiny aimed to ensure the integrity of the competition amidst concerns about potential manipulation in high-stakes sporting events.

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the group’s observations can be explained by many other reasons than manipulation.