First Russian shadow fleet vessel enters Channel since Smyrtos boarding

A Russian-flagged tanker, identified as the Forwarder, has entered the English Channel, representing the first instance of such a vessel traversing the waterway since British forces boarded the Smyrtos early Sunday morning. Ship-tracking data reviewed by BBC Verify shows the Forwarder, which departed from Primorsk last week, sailed south through the Channel on Wednesday evening, broadcasting its final destination as Dongying port in China.

This movement is significant as UK-sanctioned "shadow fleet" vessels have largely avoided the Channel since the interception of the Smyrtos. Tracking data indicated that several sanctioned ships altered their routes to bypass the waterway in the aftermath of that operation. The Forwarder itself has been sanctioned by the UK, the US, and the EU since 2025. The vessel has reportedly changed its name twice since the British government accused it of smuggling oil from Russia.

The Forwarder left Primorsk on June 12 after loading oil from the refinery, described as a critical export hub for Russia's energy industry. Shadow fleet tankers like the Forwarder have been crucial for Russia's energy exports since Western sanctions were imposed following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. The clandestine fleet, comprising over 700 aging tankers with often obscured ownership, is responsible for transporting 75% of Russia's sanctioned oil, according to the Ministry of Defence.

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Going after vessels that are falsely flagged or misusing a flag of convenience is one thing, but this would be going after Russia directly which would be a further step up in escalation.

While a Royal Navy warship, HMS Tyne, appears to be operating in the vicinity of the Forwarder, it remains unclear if a Russian warship, Admiral Grigorovich, assigned to escort sanctioned oil tankers, is accompanying the Forwarder. A NATO official confirmed that the Admiral Grigorovich had not moved far from the location of the Smyrtos incident as of Wednesday evening.

Experts suggest that interception by UK or French forces is unlikely. Frederik Van Lokeren, a former Belgian naval officer and maritime analyst, explained that while intercepting falsely flagged or misusing vessels is one matter, boarding a Russian-flagged ship, potentially escorted by a Russian warship, would represent a significant escalation. "I don't expect the UK, or any other Western country, to attempt to board her," Van Lokeren stated. Mark Douglas, an analyst with marine intelligence firm Starboard, noted that the circumstances surrounding the Smyrtos provided a clearer legal basis for boarding, which may not apply to the Forwarder.

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Since this is a Russian-flagged vessel, possibly escorted by a Russian warship, I don't expect the UK, or any other Western country, to attempt to board her.