Flávio Bolsonaro continues to close gap with Lula in Brazilian election polls

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva still leads the presidential race, but Senator Flávio Bolsonaro is steadily narrowing the gap ahead of the October election.

Datafolha’s latest poll put Lula at 38% support for the first round and Bolsonaro at 33%. Lula’s lead fell to five percentage points from six in August, when the president stood at 39% and his main rival at 33%.

The contest is even tighter in a simulated runoff. Lula’s support declined from 47% in August to 46% in September, while Bolsonaro’s rose from 43% to 44%. The two-point difference places them in a technical tie because it matches the poll’s margin of error.

Augusto Cury, a writer running for the centrist Avante party, consolidated third place after rising from 2% to 8%. Cury, who supports some left-wing and some right-wing positions, also received 10% in a Quest poll released earlier this week. That survey identified him as the candidate with the strongest potential to break Brazil’s current political polarization.

Other candidates lost ground. Goiás former governor Ronaldo Caiado received 4%, far-right activist Renan Santos received 3%, and former Minas Gerais governor Romeu Zema received 2%.

Datafolha conducted the poll after the formal start of campaigning and radio and television election advertising. It interviewed 2,002 voters in 125 cities from Tuesday through Thursday. The poll also found that 47% of voters would reject voting for Flávio Bolsonaro, compared with 45% for Lula. The article’s final section on evaluations of the candidates is incomplete.