Flávio Bolsonaro seeks to counter US tariffs, but reinforces their political nature

Pre-candidate for the Brazilian presidency, Flávio Bolsonaro, has traveled to Washington with the aim of neutralizing the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs on Brazil. His strategy involves presenting arguments to the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) that could, however, backfire by emphasizing the political motivations behind the trade measures.

Bolsonaro has argued that Trump's tariffs were justified by the treatment of former President Jair Bolsonaro in a legal process, which Trump called a "disgrace" and a "witch hunt." Flávio also stated that the tariffs were intended to pressure the current Brazilian government under President Lula, but instead, they strengthened Lula's position. This stance risks corroborating Lula's narrative that the Bolsonaro family instigated foreign intervention to serve their personal and political interests.

Requesting a delay in U.S. action until after Brazil's elections further suggests Bolsonaro's concern for his political viability. This approach could undermine claims that he is acting to protect Brazilian jobs or the Pix payment system, making such statements appear insincere. The USTR's decision on the tariffs, whether maintaining the proposed 25% or offering alternatives, may not fully align with Bolsonaro's arguments, as they could have legal implications for the USTR's defense of the investigation's technical basis.

Historically, U.S. tariffs have faced legal challenges, with the Supreme Court siding with affected parties. Future tariffs, even with different justifications, are likely to be contested. Bolsonaro's admission that the trade probe was designed to aid Bolsonaro's political comeback could complicate the USTR's position.

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the tariffs were politically exploited by the current Brazilian government; the government that these measures sought to pressure emerged strengthened.