Florida polls: Donalds leads Jolly by five points in gubernatorial race

The race for Florida governor is shaping up to be competitive in the lead-up to the 2026 midterm elections. While Republican Byron Donalds currently holds an advantage over Democrat David Jolly, polls indicate a single-digit difference in support. A notable percentage of voters remain undecided.

According to an average of polls compiled by Real Clear Polling, Donalds leads the gubernatorial contest by five points. In a hypothetical general election matchup for November 3, Donalds garners 45% of the vote compared to Jolly's 40%. However, the state's primaries are scheduled for August 18.

A recent poll conducted by the Public Opinion Research Lab at the University of North Florida surveyed 848 likely midterm voters between July 8 and July 17. This survey also showed Donalds with a five-point lead, but highlighted that a segment of the electorate has yet to make a final decision. The university noted that the margin between the candidates is narrower than in recent election cycles.

Meanwhile, the Republican primary presents a different picture. Donalds is the clear favorite to secure the party's nomination, with an average lead of nearly 39 points over his closest rivals, according to Real Clear Polling. Recent polls consistently show the Republican congressman comfortably exceeding 40% support, maintaining a lead of over 30 points against his competitors.