Food prices jump 5% after Hormuz closure — W’Bank

Global food prices saw a significant five percent increase in the two months following the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to Middle East conflict in late February 2026. This surge brought food prices to their highest point since January 2024, with oils and meals being the primary drivers of the gain.

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Even so, the food price response has been far more contained than in early 2022.

The World Bank analysis indicates that the oils and meals segment experienced the sharpest pressure, rising by 10 percent. This increase is attributed to higher crude oil prices and expanded biofuel blending mandates in major markets such as Indonesia, Thailand, and the United States. Grain prices saw a more modest three percent increase during the same period, supported by ample global supplies, despite drought concerns and rising input costs affecting wheat and maize.

Despite the increase, the World Bank described the overall food price response as "contained" compared to previous global shocks. The analysis contrasted the current situation with the early stages of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022, when food prices jumped 15 percent in a similar timeframe. Factors contributing to the more moderate response include ample grain and oilseed supplies and farmers having secured fertilizer before the recent conflict.

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ample grain and oilseed supplies

The current shock is transmitting mainly through increased input costs rather than direct disruption of major food export routes. Food security pressures have intensified in import-dependent regions, particularly in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, where inflation accelerated after the Strait of Hormuz closure disrupted supply routes. The World Bank noted that food inflation, previously contained in the region, rose sharply in Gulf economies.

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ample edible oil supplies helped limit further gains.