For Iran’s leaders, surviving the war may prove easier than winning the peace

Iran's leadership views its recent conflict with the United States not as a defeat, but as a strategic victory that has left the regime feeling emboldened and stronger. Despite President Donald Trump's early declaration of US success, Iran maintained its capacity to retaliate throughout the fighting, ultimately leading to an interim ceasefire agreement.

A pivotal element of Iran's strategy was its ability to disrupt global oil supplies by effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping lane for a fifth of the world's crude oil. This action, coupled with its continued defiance, has allowed Iran to project an image of triumph over the US and Israel.

However, the article suggests that surviving the war may be simpler than navigating the subsequent peace. The true challenge for Iran's leaders lies in translating this perceived wartime success into tangible benefits such as sanctions relief, economic recovery, and sufficient public support to ensure the regime's long-term stability.

Internally, the regime has reinforced its hardline stance, appointing Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the Supreme Leader, as his father's successor. This move breaks with the Islamic Republic's historical aversion to hereditary succession and signals a deliberate effort to ensure continuity. Iran's military capabilities, including its ballistic missile program, remain intact, posing a continued threat to regional allies and the global economy.

The memorandum of understanding reached with the US allows Iran to maintain its missile program and its support for regional proxies. In return, Iran has reiterated its commitment not to pursue nuclear weapons, pledged to dilute its uranium stockpile, and agreed to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. These concessions are seen as not significantly exceeding Iran's pre-war positions, leading experts to believe that the regime's sense of triumph could be short-lived if it fails to deliver domestic improvements and curb the appetite for further conflict among its hardliners.

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For the Islamic Republic and its supporters, there is this strong sense of confidence that they took the biggest blows America and Israel can give them and were left standing and are getting concessions.