Forbes on Putin: 'His days are numbered' - $400,000 bet placed on 'Tsar's' downfall

A significant wager of $400,000 has been placed on the cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket, with the bettor predicting that Russian President Vladimir Putin will not hold the presidency until the end of 2026. This substantial bet has fueled renewed debate surrounding the possibility of insider information being used on such platforms and the growing trend of geopolitical speculation.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in the U.S. recently proposed a framework to regulate online prediction markets. The proposals aim to prohibit bets deemed contrary to public interest or vulnerable to manipulation through confidential information, potentially including wagers related to conflicts or political assassinations. However, these rules are not yet in effect, leaving the status of the Putin bet uncertain.

This situation echoes a previous case in April where a U.S. Special Forces soldier was accused of using classified information to profit over $400,000 on the same platform. The soldier allegedly placed 13 bets related to Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro shortly before an operation, resulting in significant gains. The U.S. Department of Justice charged him with illegally using confidential government data for personal financial benefit.

Forbes, in its analysis, suggests that Putin's tenure is nearing its end, citing multiple existential challenges. The ongoing war in Ukraine is reportedly straining the Kremlin and increasing internal dissatisfaction, as evidenced by viral videos of Russian military bloggers warning of potential mutiny. Social unrest is growing due to mandatory conscription and shortages, drawing parallels to historical regime changes. Forbes posits that elites, fearing for their own security, might turn against Putin, potentially leading to internal conflict within his security forces. The publication outlines scenarios ranging from assassination to a show trial, with potential catalysts including new Ukrainian attacks, social upheaval, or a withdrawal of Chinese support, estimating his fall as likely within the next three years.

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The days of Putin are numbered.