Forbes predicts bleak Russian future post-war amid economic collapse and military inefficiency

Forbes predicts a grim future for Russia, regardless of the war's outcome, due to catastrophic military inefficiency and a crumbling economy. The publication highlights that even if Russia retains occupied Ukrainian territories, the gains will not compensate for the human losses, immense costs, international isolation, and industrial decline since 2022. The key question is not how the war ends, but what Russia will look like afterward.

“

The turning point has not yet been reached. However, the balance of power is gradually shifting in Kyiv's favor.

Ukrainian drone and missile strikes targeting Russian oil refineries, storage, and logistics facilities are inflicting real damage on Moscow's capacity to fund its war effort and maintain domestic stability. Forbes notes that the balance of power is gradually shifting in Kyiv's favor, though a definitive turning point has not yet been reached.

“

Regardless of how the war ends, the final result will be greatly influenced by the catastrophic inefficiency of the Russian army.

The long-term instability in Russia, a major energy exporter, will affect investment, supply chains, and energy prices globally. Even if sanctions are lifted post-war, Russia's reputation as an energy supplier will remain severely damaged, deterring investors. Europe, once a major buyer of Russian hydrocarbons, is rapidly diversifying, with the US becoming a leading supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to the EU.

“

Even if Russia retains occupied Ukrainian territories, their benefit is unlikely to compensate for the human losses, immense costs, international isolation, and industrial decline since 2022.

Forbes suggests that any increased energy purchases by China from Russia post-peace agreement would not be a benevolent act but would strengthen Beijing's influence. The longer this dependency lasts, the more opportunities Beijing will have to expand its economic sway in Russia's Far East and Siberia. Unless an unlikely political upheaval occurs, Russia will formally remain a sovereign state but increasingly become a semi-vassal nation with diminishing autonomy.

“

The most important question is not how the war ends, but what Russia will be like after it ends.