Ford government sees poll surge after trade war escalation

Ontario Premier Doug Ford is enjoying a substantial increase in public support, with his Progressive Conservative party regaining the lead in recent polling. This surge in popularity comes in the wake of escalating trade tensions with the United States, specifically after President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on billions of dollars worth of Canadian products.

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This is a very different Ontario race than the one we saw in July.

A new poll by Liaison Strategies, conducted on August 23 and 24, found that 39% of Ontarians would support the Progressive Conservatives. This marks a notable turnaround for Ford's party, which had faced challenges in earlier polling this year due to controversies surrounding government spending and transparency issues.

David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, noted the significant shift, stating, "This is a very different Ontario race than the one we saw in July." He highlighted that the Progressive Conservatives are six points better off than they were the previous month. Valentin attributed this change largely to the trade war context, particularly as the U.S. tariffs took effect and Ford engaged in personal exchanges with President Trump.

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The obvious context is the trade war. This poll was in the field right as the latest U.S. tariffs took effect and as Ford and Trump turned the fight into something personal. Whether voters like Ford in general or not, this is the kind of issue that can temporarily change the frame around a premier.

While the poll indicates a recovery in support for the Progressive Conservatives, Valentin cautioned against viewing it as a complete political endorsement for Ford himself. "The PCs have reclaimed the lead, but that should not be mistaken for a clean bill of political health for Ford," he said. "Ford is much less damaged than he was a month ago, but he is still deeply underwater. The party is in a better place than the premier, personally."

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The PCs have reclaimed the lead, but that should not be mistaken for a clean bill of political health for Ford.

The poll also revealed a decline in support for the Liberals and the NDP, who saw their numbers drop as the PCs gained. Ford had previously made headlines for calling Trump a "loser" and the "king of bankruptcies," comments he later admitted were "a bit heated." Despite this, he maintained that no one had instructed him to moderate his language regarding the U.S. president.

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Ford is much less damaged than he was a month ago, but he is still deeply underwater. The party is in a better place than the premier, personally.