Forecast: Central Asia Expected to See Significant Above-Normal Precipitation in 2026-2027

Central Asia faces the prospect of significantly increased rainfall in 2026-2027, according to an analytical review by the MoveGreen team concerning the El Niño climate phenomenon. The World Meteorological Organization announced in June 2026 that conditions for El Niño were forming in the tropical Pacific, prompting global weather change warnings. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially confirmed the start of El Niño later that month.

A forecast analysis by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre predicts that while Australia, Southeast Asia, Southern Africa, Central America, and India may face severe droughts, Central Asia is likely to experience precipitation exceeding normal levels. This trend is expected to intensify if a "Super El Niño" occurs, where ocean surface temperatures rise by more than 2.5-3°C, leading to even greater rainfall increases than a standard El Niño.

While precipitation may remain close to normal until August, the forecast shifts towards above-normal rainfall as El Niño strengthens through November. Compounding this, Central Asia is also projected to experience prolonged heatwaves throughout the summer. Climate scientist Olga Strizhantseva notes that high temperatures contribute to increased evaporation, forming clouds that then release precipitation over land.

Strizhantseva indicated that Kyrgyzstan could see increased rainfall in the coming weeks due to cyclonic circulation, with current observations showing a slight rise in precipitation. However, she cautioned that predicting future amounts remains difficult. The potential for heavy rainfall raises concerns about increased risks of mudflows and floods. Furthermore, intense precipitation could swell dangerous glacial lakes, potentially leading to more frequent outbursts in the coming years.

El Niño occurs when trade winds blowing from east to west weaken, causing warm surface waters to shift eastward across the Pacific. This reduces the upwelling of cold water off the coast of South America. The phenomenon is identified when the monthly sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific is at least 0.5°C above normal for several consecutive months. El Niño's global impact varies significantly by region, leading to different consequences such as drought in some areas and floods in others.

“

The number of downpours can lead to an increase in dangerous situations such as mudflows and floods. In addition, intense precipitation can contribute to an increase in the volume of dangerous glacial lakes. In the coming years, a slight increase in such phenomena is possible.