Forecasters predict historic strength for intensifying El Nino

An intensifying El Nino is on track to reach historically strong levels, the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced Thursday. The agency's monthly update indicates an 81% probability that this year's El Nino, a natural warming of the equatorial Pacific that disrupts global weather patterns, will become "very strong" – its highest category – by fall. This places it among the most intense El Ninos recorded since NOAA began tracking them in 1950.

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It's pretty extreme. Not unprecedented, but very unusual.

Meteorologists anticipate that the most significant impacts, such as droughts, heavy rainfall, and heat waves, will be most pronounced during the fall and winter months. This El Nino, which emerged just last month, has already moved past the weak stage and is now considered moderate, showing no signs of slowing its strengthening. Ocean temperatures in key Pacific regions, which are crucial indicators of El Nino's strength, are at or near record highs for this time of year. Scientists note this is partly due to the background warming caused by human-induced climate change.

Emily Becker, a scientist at the University of Miami who contributes to the NOAA El Nino forecast team, described the situation as "pretty extreme" and "very unusual." She predicts this El Nino could rival the 1997-1998 event, with some meteorologists suggesting it might even be stronger. The World Bank previously reported that the 1997 El Nino was linked to 23,000 deaths from weather disasters, increased poverty in some nations, and cost governments up to $45 billion.

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This is not a run-of-the-mill El Nino.

Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, emphasized that "this is not a run-of-the-mill El Nino." He highlighted that it is breaking records for its early intensity and, unlike previous super El Ninos, is occurring on top of considerable background warming from fossil fuel emissions. Swain cautioned that the impacts might differ from historical events. While a very strong El Nino increases the likelihood of extreme weather conditions, it doesn't guarantee more intense events. It raises the probability of wetter winters for the southern U.S. and warmer winters for the northern U.S. and Canada. El Nino typically weakens the Atlantic hurricane season, leading forecasters to significantly reduce their storm predictions for the upcoming season.

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We might not expect to see the exact same impacts from this event as we have seen in historical ones.