Former ambassador warns Australia's ties China could spiral again

Australia's relationship with China remains precarious and susceptible to further downturns, according to Graham Fletcher, the country's former ambassador to China. Fletcher, who served in Beijing from 2019, warns that stability between the two nations is "not a given" and requires constant management.

In a report for the Lowy Institute, Fletcher indicated that the Australian government has been cautious, quietly rebuffing China's overtures to deepen cooperation in areas such as infrastructure and artificial intelligence. This stance stems from China's past economic coercion tactics, which demonstrated to Canberra that Beijing is willing to exploit any leverage for political gain. Consequently, Australia has prioritized preventing the accumulation of such leverage.

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The gulf in terms of diverging world views and national security agendas is simply too wide.

Fletcher asserts that a truly close relationship between Australia and China is unattainable due to their fundamentally divergent views on regional order and national security. "The gulf in terms of diverging world views and national security agendas is simply too wide," the report states. He characterizes the current state as a "modest new normal," which the government likely deems "good enough" given these deep-seated differences.

Despite the inherent challenges, Fletcher noted that a major conflict, such as a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, is not an immediate strong risk. However, he cautioned that the relationship could spiral downwards again if significant disagreements accumulate and are not managed effectively. He pointed to potential flashpoints, such as Australia's decision regarding the ownership of the Port of Darwin, as examples of issues that could inflame tensions. Fletcher observed that China is becoming increasingly sensitive to security-driven restrictions imposed by the EU and US on its technology and investments, and is developing countermeasures that could have global implications.

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Stability will remain a goal, not a given for Canberra.