Four National Assembly By-Elections Too Close to Call Before Poll Blackout

With the media blackout on opinion polls set to begin on May 28th, four seats in the upcoming National Assembly by-elections are locked in extremely tight contests. The deadline for candidate consolidation, crucial for potentially swaying close races, is May 28th, the day before early voting commences, but the prospects for such alliances remain uncertain.

Out of the 14 seats up for grabs in the National Assembly by-elections, four are considered highly competitive: Busan Buk-gap, Pyeongtaek-eul in Gyeonggi Province, Gongju-Buyeo-Cheongyang in South Chungcheong Province, and Ulsan Nam-gap. While most of the remaining seats are expected to lean towards the Democratic Party, with one seat favoring the People Power Party in Daegu Dalseong, the Democratic Party also considers Daegu Dalseong a competitive race.

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The People Power Party is the only opposition party in the National Assembly that can check the Democratic Party, and Park Min-sik is the People Power Party candidate.

In Busan Buk-gap, the race has shifted to a "two strong, one moderate" dynamic, with Democratic candidate Ha Jeong-woo, People Power candidate Park Min-sik, and independent candidate Han Dong-hoon vying for the seat. Recent polls show Han leading slightly within the margin of error, followed closely by Ha, with Park trailing. One analysis suggests Park's aggressive negative campaigning against Han may have alienated conservative voters.

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The current polls may be over-representing Han Dong-hoon's support base.

The Pyeongtaek-eul race features a three-way contest between Democratic candidate Kim Yong-nam, Cho Kuk Innovation Party candidate Cho Kuk, and People Power candidate Yoo Eui-dong. Intense verbal sparring between Kim and Cho makes consolidation unlikely. Meanwhile, Yoo's camp has indicated openness to consolidating with Hwang Kyo-ahn of the Liberty and Justice Party to unite conservative votes.

Other close races include Gongju-Buyeo-Cheongyang, where the Democratic candidate is neck-and-neck with the People Power candidate, and Ulsan Nam-gap, with both major parties' candidates polling within a narrow margin of each other.

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We must unite the voice of the conservatives.