France Projected to Lose 3.2 Million Inhabitants by 2070, Aging Population to Increase

France is projected to lose 3.2 million inhabitants by 2070, bringing its total population to 65.9 million if current demographic trends persist. This demographic shift will be accompanied by a significant aging of the population, with the proportion of individuals aged 65 and over expected to rise from the current 22% to 32%.

The National Institute of Statistics (INSEE) presented these projections, based on France's current population of 69.1 million. The institute also outlined several alternative scenarios. In a less favorable scenario, where fertility rates decline and immigration decreases, France's population could shrink by 14.5 million to just 54.6 million by 2070. Conversely, a scenario with increased fertility, immigration, and life expectancy could see the population grow by 9.2 million to 78.3 million.

In the central projection, the population is expected to peak at 69.8 million in 2037. This growth is largely attributed to immigration, as France has recorded a negative natural balance, more deaths than births, since 2025. Beyond the overall population figures, INSEE's projections indicate a substantial decrease in younger age groups. The number of people under 45 is expected to fall by 8.9 million, with the most significant decline among those under 20 (4.8 million fewer) and those aged 20 to 44 (4.1 million fewer).

The working-age population, defined as those between 45 and 64, is projected to remain relatively stable. However, the number of individuals aged 65 and older is set to increase by 5.8 million. This demographic transformation raises questions about future social structures, healthcare needs, and the workforce.