France’s Election Could Hand Russia a Victory

While attention is fixed on Germany, France is already developing a political situation that could reshape Europe next spring. The country will hold presidential and parliamentary elections in the spring and early summer, and the presidential runoff could pit the far left against the far right.

The prospect alarms the Finnish commentary. If voters must choose between Marine Le Pen and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, it argues, the result would be “extremely bad” for Europe, Ukraine and Finland. France’s political field is beginning to clear, but it remains crowded, with candidates spread across the left, right and center.

That fragmentation benefits both extremes. Le Pen, who was convicted of embezzlement, is emerging on the right. Mélenchon represents the left. The center has many candidates whose differences are small enough to divide their support. Former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe is described as its strongest contender and might defeat Mélenchon if the center rallied behind him.

The commentary links the weakness of France’s center-right to President Emmanuel Macron. It says he disappointed voters by doing both too little and too much, while damaging the political camp from which he emerged and undermining attempts to restore economic balance. During Macron’s presidency, France’s influence in Europe grew, helped by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and Donald Trump’s approach to NATO and the European Union. Germany’s loss of cheap Russian energy also gave France more room to maneuver.

At home, however, the picture is harsher. France’s public debt is expected to rise by about 1.4 trillion euros during Macron’s time in office, while efforts to correct the economic course have remained incomplete. Pension-age increases stalled amid public opposition and political weakness.

The commentary sees both Le Pen and Mélenchon as problematic for Finland because it says they show too much understanding of Russia’s needs and want to reduce the European Union’s power. Both portray the EU as an obstacle to French influence and national interests, without, in the commentary’s view, a clear analysis of the union’s authority or shortcomings.