French court to decide political future of Le Pen less than a year before presidential elections

The French presidential race for 2027 faces a pivotal moment as the Paris Court of Appeal prepares to deliver its verdict on Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally (RN). The decision could determine whether the far-right leader, who has reached the second round of the last two presidential elections, is eligible to run for the presidency for a fourth time.

Le Pen's political trajectory has been strong, positioning her favorably in pre-election polls. However, the court's ruling, expected on Tuesday at 1:30 PM local time, could dramatically reshape the political scene. The judges will rule on her conviction for embezzlement of public funds related to the alleged misuse of European Parliament funds for assistants at the former National Front, now RN.

If the court upholds the initial sentence of a five-year ban from holding public office with immediate effect, Le Pen would be automatically disqualified from the 2027 presidential contest. This scenario would likely open the door for Jordan Bardella, the current RN president and also a strong contender in polls, to lead the party's presidential bid.

The court's decision could result in three main outcomes: the full confirmation of the conviction and sentence, a modification or reduction of the disqualification period allowing Le Pen to run, or a total or partial reversal of the initial ruling. Analysts suggest that only a complete acquittal would definitively clear her path to the Élysée Palace. The court will also examine the core of the case: whether a system was in place between 2004 and 2016 to use European Parliament funds intended for assistants to pay staff who were, in reality, working for the party. In March 2025, a lower court found 25 defendants guilty in this case, estimating the financial damage at 3.2 million euros.