Friendship or Leverage: Why is Xi Jinping Visiting North Korea?

Chinese leader Xi Jinping's visit to North Korea marks a significant diplomatic engagement with a neighbor China can neither fully control nor afford to alienate. The relationship, often described as "forged in blood" since the Korean War, has seen recent strains due to mistrust. Beijing now seeks to reassert its sway over Pyongyang, prioritizing stability on its border and maintaining influence without entanglement in North Korea's nuclear ambitions. Xi's trip is viewed as an opportunity to exert leverage rather than a gesture of pure friendship. Seoul suggests China might position itself as a mediator between North Korea and the United States, though Beijing may harbor other objectives. Western diplomatic sources indicate China's growing concern over the deepening partnership between Pyongyang and Moscow. Following his meeting with Russian leader Vladimir Putin, Xi may aim to keep North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in check, particularly as China expands its global presence. The cooling of Beijing-Pyongyang ties was subtly evident, with muted celebrations for the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations and a lack of high-level exchanges throughout 2024, contrasting sharply with North Korea's increasingly warm relationship with Russia. This growing closeness with Moscow has unsettled Beijing, especially after North Korea expanded military cooperation with Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, culminating in a mutual defense pact signed during Putin's 2024 visit to Pyongyang. Reports suggest North Korean soldiers have died fighting for Russia, and Pyongyang is accused of supplying ammunition in exchange for oil and aid, developments that have alarmed allies and quietly concerned China. Ankit Panda, a nuclear policy specialist at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, notes that "China wants to ensure that its interests vis-a-vis North Korea are protected at a time of rapid convergence between Moscow and Pyongyang." As China's only formal defense treaty partner, Beijing is wary of Russia becoming the dominant influence in Pyongyang, which could reduce Chinese leverage. In response, China has sought to reset the relationship, notably by inviting Kim to a military parade in Beijing last year, where he was prominently seated alongside Putin.

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China wants to ensure that its interests vis-a-vis North Korea are protected at a time of rapid convergence between Moscow and Pyongyang.