Fringe no more: How far would Australia propel Pauline Hanson’s far-right One Nation?

Australia is confronting the once-unthinkable possibility of far-right anti-migrant politician Pauline Hanson becoming Prime Minister. Hanson, who entered Parliament in 1996, has seen her popularity skyrocket since the May 2025 election, with her One Nation party now topping national opinion polls.

One Nation, which garnered only 6 percent of the vote in 2025, has since attracted support from voters drifting away from the center-right Liberal-National Coalition, which has faced internal strife. Recent polls show One Nation with 29-30 percent support, slightly ahead of the ruling Labor party. The party also achieved significant results in state and federal by-elections, winning its first Lower House seat.

Hanson, the leader of One Nation and a senator, has expressed confidence in her ability to lead the country, stating she is considering running for a Lower House seat in the next election, a traditional path for prime ministers. Her party's populist message, focusing on cost of living, immigration, and housing affordability, has resonated with a growing segment of the electorate.

Analysts suggest One Nation's ascent could continue, particularly if immigration numbers increase or if the country faces further security threats. The Bondi Beach terror attack in December 2025, involving Islamist gunmen, has fueled concerns about immigration. While some analysts doubt One Nation will win the next election, its prospects remain tied to the dynamics between the Coalition and One Nation, and broader societal anxieties.

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I’m not going to underestimate myself or say, ‘No, I can’t do it’, because you know, have a look at what we’ve got now.