From Trump’s strength to Vance’s retreat: Regime change is the only path to peace - opinion

Washington's memorandum of understanding (MoU) with Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf is criticized as a flawed strategy that grants the Iranian regime valuable time precisely when it was militarily weakened and politically exposed. The article argues that this approach allows the IRGC power structure to shift from crisis survival to post-strike consolidation, rather than facilitating a necessary regime change.

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The deal with Ghalibaf does not represent a transformation away from the regime. His function is precisely to offer Washington a “rational” interlocutor through whom the system can rebrand itself

The author contends that Ghalibaf is not a moderate figure with a national base, but rather an IRGC official whose function is to provide Washington with a "rational" interlocutor. This, the piece suggests, enables the system to rebrand itself and present a facade of change, masking the underlying continuity of the regime. Ghalibaf is identified as an IRGC official involved in suppressing students in 1999, a history he reportedly took pride in later.

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Time is the regime’s greatest asset

A recurring failure in Washington's Iran policy, according to the article, is the hesitation to define a clear political end-state. The piece asserts that Washington mistakenly treats internal factional variations within the regime as strategic opportunities, when in reality, these are mechanisms for regime preservation. The Islamic Republic has historically used manufactured factions to manage external pressure, and the current situation is seen as no different.

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Ghalibaf is not a moderate, nor is he a figure with a national base inside Iran.

The article concludes that dealing with a securitized regime actor like Ghalibaf ensures the preservation of the same rogue regime that initiated the crisis. The regime's primary objective is survival until the end of US President Donald Trump's term. Credibility, the author notes, is not merely a moral asset but a strategic capability, implying that Washington's current approach undermines its own strategic position.

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He is the same IRGC official involved in torturing and murdering university students in July 1999, when the IRGC, Basij, and the police threw students off the rooftops in Tehran University dormitory. At the time, Ghalibaf was the commander of the IRGC’s air force. He later took pride in his involvement in suppressing the students in a 2013 speech.