Germany’s far right heads for sweeping eastern state victory: Three scenarios for forming a government

The far-right Alternative for Germany is heading toward a sweeping victory in Saxony-Anhalt, according to exit polls. With nearly 45% of the vote, the AfD stands far ahead of the Christian Democratic Union, which is projected to receive about 18%, almost half its previous result.

The governing coalition of the CDU, Social Democrats and Free Democrats suffered a decisive defeat. The SPD remained low at around 8%, while the FDP fell to approximately 2% and appears unlikely to play a significant role in the next state parliament. The AfD’s result, led by its 35-year-old state leader Ulrich Siegmund, would be the strongest ever recorded by a party in elections for Saxony-Anhalt’s regional parliament, amid record turnout.

Yet the victory does not automatically give the AfD the power to govern. Current results leave it three seats short of an outright majority, and traditional parties have ruled out cooperation. State Premier Sven Schulze has indicated he could resign, although he will remain in office for now. The new parliament is due to meet for the first time on October 6.

The first possible scenario is that the AfD gains several more percentage points while Sahra Wagenknecht’s BSW fails to clear the 5% threshold. Siegmund could then become premier and govern alone. A second possibility is that BSW enters parliament and agrees to support the AfD, either through a coalition or parliamentary backing.

The third scenario would arise if the AfD remains short of a majority and BSW fails to enter parliament. The CDU, SPD and Greens could then try to form a minority government, relying on Die Linke to keep it in office. Such an arrangement would be extremely fragile. Parliament would also have to elect its speaker as the process of forming the next government begins.