Global Economy, Emerging Market Status to Shape Indonesia's Stock Market in H2 2026: Mirae Asset

Indonesia's stock market trajectory in the latter half of 2026 hinges on a confluence of global macroeconomic factors, compelling stock valuations, and the nation's sustained status as an Emerging Market, according to PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia (MASI). The research firm notes a resurgence in foreign investor interest, particularly in large-cap banking stocks, signaling a positive outlook for the Indonesian market. This renewed attention indicates a shift from mere technical rebounds towards a deeper assessment of economic fundamentals and the earning prospects of listed companies.

MASI's Head of Research and Chief Economist, Rully Arya Wisnubroto, highlighted that investors are now prioritizing the strength of the national economy and the performance outlook of issuers amidst ongoing macroeconomic challenges. The primary concern for the Indonesian stock market in H2 2026 is expected to stem from global monetary policy. Mirae projects that the U.S. Federal Reserve will implement further interest rate hikes of 25 basis points each in September and December 2026, extending the 'higher for longer' policy.

This sustained high-interest rate environment is anticipated to tighten U.S. dollar liquidity, consequently exerting pressure on the Indonesian rupiah's exchange rate. Coupled with economic slowdowns and the potential for a twin deficit, Bank Indonesia faces limited room to further increase its own policy rates. This delicate balance presents a significant challenge for monetary authorities aiming to stabilize the economy and currency.

Despite these global headwinds, Wilbert Arifin, a Research Analyst at MASI, pointed to the MSCI's decision to retain Indonesia within the Emerging Market category as a significant catalyst. While Indonesia remains under review until November 2026 and its weight in the MSCI Emerging Markets index has decreased, this classification averted the risk of reclassification to a Frontier Market. Such a downgrade could have triggered substantial capital outflows, estimated at up to Rp 80 trillion, underscoring the importance of maintaining its Emerging Market status for market stability and investor confidence.

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Kondisi higher for longer membuat likuiditas dolar AS semakin ketat sehingga memberikan tekanan terhadap nilai tukar rupiah.